大市关键：真突破？假突破？及投资战略
上周，各美股指大幅度放量上攻，有点意外。原以为浪V-3-(4)应有更深一点的调整(见previous blog), 结果我以为的V-3-(4)-a实为整个V-3-(4)!!! IT IS NOW IN 浪V-3-(5) already!!! 周２的上攻迫使我立即斩仓HQD。真是随时准备犯错误，随时准备改正错误。此操作被同行们戏称为太胆小。-2~3%就止损，至于吗？但我却以此为傲。问题不是％，问题是一旦确认为方向错误，立即改正，这就是纪律! 这就是生存法则!!! 作为风险投资者，胆子没法太小。不少情况下，-50% 我也不斩仓，反而dollar average down! 但那是做长线，for SPECIAL GROWTH PENNY STOCKS, e.g V.PMV, T.ONR, V.EKG, V.VRS, V.NZ, V.AXM, 目标是＋３００－１０００％, 且流动性极差, 挥发性极大，极易被操控，被震仓出局!需要极大的风险承受力+适当分散投资，不然就放弃这游戏！ 而这是短线, MAJOR INDEX,目标是１０－２０％。且流动性极好! So, you see the difference.
上周是真突破？假突破？
说真突破者强调：
1) It was a global-scale break out, all major index, especially leading index HAVE BROKEN OUT!
2) After Greece trouble got preliminary set-down, and investors got insurance compensation payment, investors have now been convinced to play more risky game like stocks. So we saw a very low volatility as VIX showed, and US debt price starts go down, stocks go high.
3) 浪V-3-(5) [or 浪V-5 after a short consolidation of 浪V-4] should run a extending wave for several more months.
说假突破者强调:
1) 不少后知后觉者已下海，大户正拉高出货。上周5，各美股指大幅度明显高位放量,图穷匕首现already!
2) VIX as a 反向指标, got very very low! That is OVER-OPTIMISTIC! 过于乐观!
3) 浪V-3-(5) [or 浪V-5 after a short consolidation of 浪V-4] may be & may be NOT extend. And 浪V-4 could be a SIGNIFICANT CORRECTION!
4) Spain 西班牙 trouble may come any day, since their unemplyment has been over 20%! And its sovereign debt 主权债务危机may start any day!
5) Since China and India may have passed the high peak of infrastructure-construction, resources, especially metals’ price may drop down rapidly, the so called “SUPER-CYCLE of commodity”, 几十年一次的超级循环, may have got into super-down? That would severely affect Canada market.
公也有理，婆也有理。我则等等看。may be just a few days, 关键是 -
1) 即将来临的再核实 Retest previous major resistance, current major support line will be confirmed or failed? E.g. 12840 for Dow, 1374 for SP500, 2990 for NASDAQ. That may tell us, WHAT THE BIG BOYS REALLY WANT TO DO?
2) The most important is - find suitable stratege for your self. 每种主要的投资逼近方法，都有其合理的一面，所谓“存在皆合理”。也都有其局限性。股神就没玩好高科技。对冲基金神气了几年，最近又经营惨淡。关键是找到合适自己性格，风险承受力，知识面，资金量，投资目标等的逼近方法。For me, I follow 巴菲特’s idea (see my previous blog,2011/12/25). 只要市场或板块不在一个长期熊市或垮台状态下，就坚定持股优秀公司. 当然要按照市场条件注意控制仓位. 事实上，石油跌$10/b对盈利有多大影响？对于边界利润=$90/b 的V.NZ, just -11%. 关键是它能否打出更多这样好的油井。 而对于边界利润=$5-10/b 的lots of oil-sands companies, that is 落于亏损. One more e.g. Silver跌$5/oz，for Silver Wheaton (at cost of $4/oz), that is not a major concern, but for those cost about $30/oz, that is a disaster! So, 巴菲特said:
“第一、世界还会很不确定，但我还会坚定持股优秀公司。
CNBC:“你是如何处理不确定性的？你是忽略所有的不确定性，还是说，你会想法处理这些不确定性并做出投资决策？”
巴菲特：“世界总是不确定的。即使美联储主席伯南克来见我，在我耳边小声告诉我们他明天将会做这件事那件事，我也根本不会改变我对自己想要买入股票的公司的看法。将来肯定会出现各种各样的大事件，肯定会有各种各样的不确定性，最终真正重要的是你持有的公司、农场、房子未来这些年份表现如何。我无法确定买入和卖出的具体时间。”
Anyway, 真突破？假突破？我需要看２－３天。And, for my core-holding, they won’t be affected at this scale of market correction.
JMHO. I am not qualified to do any financial recommendation.
Hi. wolf:
Watch for RIM.TO and POT.To. Rim’s 5, 10, 230 MA formed golden Triangle. Today low price is supported by 10day MA and 20 Day MA. After trade in Nasdaque It is going up 2%. I think tommrow THe TSX will up and rebound. It is over sold in the hourly Chart. So Rim will open high next day and go up.
主图来看，沪指在半分位（中轨）附近受压出现回落，现已第三周，这种情况与前年9-10月份的小箱体整理极其相似，只不过形态上有所不同：都是在反弹的第一浪结束后，走出第二浪的调整（图中的箭头所示）。其中，20周线（现在2348点）构成重要支持。
故此，大盘中线并没有走坏，后市经过第二浪的调整之后，仍然很可能会走出第三浪，主升浪的目标位在上轨（逐步下行，现在2828点）。一旦后市企稳，并收复中轨，则当前的第二浪调整就构成典型的“千金难买牛回头’——大头肩底的“右肩”。
1.从附图一的短线资金的流进和流出来看，我们很容易得出本轮自去年十月开始截止目前的波浪走势的划断（划段）：当前为第四浪的调整（历时已经第五周）；2.短期均线纠缠不清，失去效应，但中线多头格局并没改变；3.从两个附图可见：短线资金持续流出，而长线资金却是持续流入。
图中的第四浪的调整，其波动范围：目前，仍介于0.5-0.618黄金分割点之间。
目前，长线资金数值（红线）上升到了83，仍在强势区；而短线资金数值（绿线）却快速下降到了14，进入弱势区。说明：当前离第四浪的低点（拐点）已经不远。这个拐点，即将是第五浪上涨的起点。
还是那句老话：短线资金决定走势，而长线资金则决定趋势。
结论：短线调整，不影响后市走出第五浪，并创新高的趋势。
补记：
这个牛三期（第五浪）的高度，维持年初做出的“在23500附近”的原判。
Now the TSX had been finished moving wave 4th-c or wave 5th-(2) correction (not going down to newlow( 4th -a wave low), it also touched and tested the support of the top of wave 1.). Yesterday TSX got the Oversold in One hourly and 30 minute Chart, daily indicators all went down to bottom area, such as WR%, KDJ, RSI, MACD. Today it started to move up sharply with 5th wave leading with gold and resource sectors. TSX has stand up on 5 days and 10 days MA line. We can see TSX built a Double Bottom in the relative high area. So next week TSX could rise.
I firmly believe that today or tommorrow is the bottom of TSX. Many evidence include economic side news, political news and technical signs all indicate today and Thursday is the bottom of TSX-11550 point is the bottom. Today after debate Euro Zone decide to give a sum of bailout to Greece On May 10-deadline. This remove the investors concern. The DAX start to be up today. CAC was rising, but down a bit-6 point. TSX many shares are oversold. They are undervalue. Today THe large cap Energy shares and Larger cap gold shares start to rebound or rise sharply. Only thing is last hour trade TSX get back , that is impacted by US markets- DOW etc..