政策打压是不是从根本上解决房价上升的问题?

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1. 这个是CBC 四月份和六月份发的文章,实际上今年3月份到7月份,大温地区resale 价格涨了11%。

4.jpg四月份文章

6.jpg六月份文章

到了8月份,CBC连续发表三篇文章。

2.jpg八月八号

这篇文章不但说了温哥华,同时指到了多伦多房价,实际意义上没有多少slow down。

3.jpg八月五号

这篇文章提到,温哥华房地产市场并没受到外国买家的影响。实际上,半年后市场就已经开始回温,一直升到现在。

5.jpg八月11号

这篇文章提到,温哥华也是15% 国外买家税,首付低于20%的买家要通过银行的压力测试才决定是否贷款,同时贷款利率也升了。 上个月,Bank of Canada 提高了银行利率 0.25%。 招术出了不少,房价还是依然走势上扬。

那么多伦多市场的房子真是卖不动么?

看分析的两个TREB的数据图揭示多伦多 Condos市场的买卖走势。大部分的 Condos 价格,买家还是能够承受。对第一次买房的人具有普遍意义。

C01_condos.jpg

C14_condos.jpg

这个是C14区 Yonge/ sheppard- Finch 区域和C01 多伦多市中心 Condos 市场 的库存量和销售量 从2008年 1月份到现在的 数据图和大致的走势图。其他地铁沿线区域的走势图和这个基本类似(有需要其他区域的走势图的可以私信联系)。

C01 区的市场Listing 数量比其他区域大,但需求量也大。

有趣的是,7月份的C01 区 Listing 数量又有所下降。虽然这里面有很多原因造成Listing 数量下降。Month of Inventory 在7月份是1.8, 也就是目前的Listing 数量只够市场在1.8个月销售完。这个MOI 在 Dec 2008 可以达到8.1! 看来虽然市场最近成交萎缩,可是要DT 市中心condo的MOI 达到 2008年水平,还有很大距离。

从图中看,市场需求量的趋势还是比供应量强劲!

虽然现在受政策影响,Condo市场价格略有下降。但从这库存量上看,政策打压不能从短时间解决Condo的供求关系。那么价格的短期波动对长期的走势影响有限。

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