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最近随着亚洲地区岛屿争端所引发的紧张局势不断升级,尤其是中国和日本之间的岛屿之争变得愈演愈烈倍受各界人士们的关注。在昨天最新一期出版的 Economist “经济学家 ” 杂志上刊登了一篇题目为“中日真的会打起来吗?”的文章全面阐述了亚洲岛屿争端的事态演变,发展趋势以及采取什么样的措施去平息国与国间的争端,我个人认为非常值得一读。为此特将全文译成中文以方便诸位理解阅读。同时有助于那些通过读英文文章学习英文的朋友们参考对比之用。由于时间仓促,漏译、错译问题在所难免,希望大家谅解并欢迎指正。

Could Asia really go to war over these?

亚洲会不会因争端真的爆发战争?

The bickering over islands is a serious threat to the region’s peace and prosperity

有关岛屿争端日趋严峻,严重地威胁到了该地区的和平与繁荣。

Sep 22nd 2012 | from the print edition

 

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THE countries of Asia do not exactly see the world in a grain of sand, but they have identified grave threats to the national interest in the tiny outcrops and shoals scattered off their coasts. The summer has seen a succession of maritime disputes involving China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan and the Philippines. This week there were more anti-Japanese riots in cities across China because of a dispute over a group of uninhabited islands known to the Japanese as the Senkakus and to the Chinese as the Diaoyus. Toyota and Honda closed down their factories. Amid heated rhetoric on both sides, one Chinese newspaper has helpfully suggested skipping the pointless diplomacy and moving straight to the main course by serving up Japan with an atom bomb.

亚洲的这些国家从一粒沙子中是看不准这个世界的(亚洲诸国从极微小的事物中是无法正确看待这个世界的),可他们还是可以分辨得出分布在各自周边海岸线周围散落的浅滩和很微小的一块岩石对国家利益的致命威胁。这个夏季已经连续出现了数起海事争端,涉及到中国,日本,南朝鲜,越南,台湾和菲律宾。这个星期因为一群杳无人烟的岛屿所发的抗日骚乱席卷中国多个城市。这些岛屿对日本人来说著称为尖阁群岛,而对中国人来说就叫钓鱼岛。丰田和本田公司都关闭了他们在中国的汽车制造厂。在双方白热化的唇枪舌战期间,一家中国报纸居然提出跳过无意义的外交途径直接了当地给日本发颗原子弹,认为这样对付日本会更有益。

 

That, thank goodness, is grotesque hyperbole: the government in Beijing is belatedly trying to play down the dispute, aware of the economic interests in keeping the peace. Which all sounds very rational, until you consider history—especially the parallel between China’s rise and that of imperial Germany over a century ago. Back then nobody in Europe had an economic interest in conflict; but Germany felt that the world was too slow to accommodate its growing power, and crude, irrational passions like nationalism took hold. China is re-emerging after what it sees as 150 years of humiliation, surrounded by anxious neighbours, many of them allied to America. In that context, disputes about clumps of rock could become as significant as the assassination of an archduke.

感谢上帝,多亏那也只是信口雌黄,奇谈怪论罢了:在北京的中国政府虽迟缓但还是企图降低这一争端,因为都非常清楚只有维持和平才能获得经济利益。假如你思考一下历史-特别是中国的崛起和一个世纪前至高无上德国之间的平衡关系就可以明白似乎所有这一切都是合情合理的。回想一下那个时候在欧洲任何一方都没有经济利益上的冲突,可当时的德国人觉得整个世界发展得太慢了不能助长其权利的增长,于是野蛮的,荒谬的激情如民族主义就站了上风。中国在经历了屈辱的150年沧桑后就像我们如今看到的一样又重新崛起了,而在它周边的很多国家都焦虑重重,因为在这些国家当中很多都是亲美联盟。这样看来为几块岩石引发的纠纷或许会成为像刺杀皇太子一样具有深远的影响。

 

 

One mountain, two tigers 一山怎能容两虎

Optimists point out that the latest scuffle is mainly a piece of political theatre—the product of elections in Japan and a leadership transition in China. The Senkakus row has boiled over now because the Japanese government is buying some of the islands from a private Japanese owner. The aim was to keep them out of the mischievous hands of Tokyo’s China-bashing governor, who wanted to buy them himself. China, though, was affronted. It strengthened its own claim and repeatedly sent patrol boats to encroach on Japanese waters. That bolstered the leadership’s image, just before Xi Jinping takes over.

乐观派人士指出最近的一番争端主要是一起政治表演-日本的选举和中国领导人换届。尖阁群岛发生的吵闹现在已经沸沸扬扬.日本政府正从私人手中购买这些群岛中的一部分,目的是要为了避免这些岛屿落入到日本排华邪恶势力掌控的地方官手中,这些地方官原打算自己出钱买这些岛。不过这么做的确冒犯了中国。于是中国加大了抗议力度并反复派巡逻艇进犯日本水域。这样做巩固住了中国领导者的形象,尤其是在习近平接任前。

 

More generally, argue the optimists, Asia is too busy making money to have time for making war. China is now Japan’s biggest trading partner. Chinese tourists flock to Tokyo to snap up bags and designer dresses on display in the shop windows on Omotesando. China is not interested in territorial expansion. Anyway, the Chinese government has enough problems at home: why would it look for trouble abroad?

更总体程度上来说这些乐观派们辩解更多的要算亚洲都在忙着挣钱根本就没时间去打仗。中国现在是日本最大的贸易伙伴。中国旅游者一窝蜂地涌向东京名牌一条街疯狂抢购名包和展示在商店橱窗里的设计师专门设计的服装。中国对领土扩张没有兴趣。因为中国现在内患太多,为什么还到国外去找麻烦呢?

 

Asia does indeed have reasons to keep relations good, and this latest squabble will probably die down, just as others have in the past. But each time an island row flares up, attitudes harden and trust erodes. Two years ago, when Japan arrested the skipper of a Chinese fishing boat for ramming a vessel just off the islands, it detected retaliation when China blocked the sale of rare earths essential to Japanese industry.

亚洲的确有诸多理由相互要保持良好关系,所以最近的争吵也许像从前发生过的其他事件一样会平息下去。可每次岛屿争端火焰燃起,各方态度都非常强硬且彼此失去信任。两年前当日本因群岛附近中国渔船撞击日本船只而将船长逮捕时,明眼人一看便知这是对中国阻断稀土销售给日本工业所采取的报复。

 

Growing nationalism in Asia, especially China, aggravates the threat. Whatever the legality of Japan’s claim to the islands, its roots lie in brutal empire-building. The media of all countries play on prejudice that has often been inculcated in schools. Having helped create nationalism and exploited it when it suited them, China’s leaders now face vitriolic 刻薄的 criticism if they do not fight their country’s corner. A recent poll suggested that just over half of China’s citizens thought the next few years would see a “military dispute” with Japan.

在当今的亚洲尤其是中国正在增长的民族主义加剧了这种威胁,无论日本如何宣称合法拥有这些群岛都是基于野蛮扩张疆域为根基的。所有国家媒体所表现出来的偏见都反复地灌输给了学生们,目的就是要帮助创立民族主义并在一旦时机成熟时可以加以利用。假如中国领导人们不去为国家的困境力争的话,就会面对刻薄的抨击。

 

The islands matter, therefore, less because of fishing, oil or gas than as counters in the high-stakes game for Asia’s future. Every incident, however small, risks setting a precedent. Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines fear that if they make concessions, China will sense weakness and prepare the next demand. China fears that if it fails to press its case, America and others will conclude that they are free to scheme against it.

只是因为捕鱼,开采油田或天然气,群岛事件根本就比不上反击者们为亚洲未来所下的更高赌注。不管事件多小,每次发生的摩擦都会冒着风险地设立一个先例。日本,越南和菲律宾担忧如果他们让步了,中国会认为他们软弱且会准备提出下一个要求。中国担心如果没能振住这个局面,美国和其盟友们就会臆断他们可以为此随心所欲地进行筹划了。

 

Co-operation and deterrence 是相互合作还是相互威胁

Asia’s inability to deal with the islands raises doubts about how it would cope with a genuine crisis, on the Korean peninsula, say, or across the Strait of Taiwan. China’s growing taste for throwing its weight around(仗势欺人) feeds deep-seated insecurities about the way it will behave as a dominant power. And the tendency for the slightest tiff to escalate into a full-blown row presents problems for America, which both aims to reassure China that it welcomes its rise, and also uses the threat of military force to guarantee that the Pacific is worthy of the name.

在处理朝鲜半岛或者说台湾海峡问题上所引发的亚洲不稳定让人们对如何应对一个真正危机产生了质疑。行为举止犹如一个强权的中国正在不断增长其胃口采用仗势欺人的方式滋生了该地区根深蒂固的不安全因素。原本最鸡毛蒜皮的争吵事态一下子升级到了全面爆发的争端体现出针对美国所产生出的问题,这种一箭双貂的做法目的都是为了给中国吃个定心丸,让美国心甘情愿地接受其崛起。同时也采用军事武力威胁的方式确保亚太地区和平的自身价值。

 

Some of the solutions will take a generation. Asian politicians have to start defanging 拔掉…尖牙 the nationalist serpents they have nursed; honest textbooks would help a lot. For decades to come, China’s rise will be the main focus of American foreign policy. Barack Obama’s “pivot” towards Asia is a useful start in showing America’s commitment to its allies. But China needs reassuring that, rather than seeking to contain it as Britain did 19th-century Germany, America wants a responsible China to realise its potential as a world power. A crudely political WTO complaint will add to Chinese worries .

一些解决方案会需要一代人的努力。亚洲的政客们不得不开始采取行动拔掉他们惯养的民族主义巨蛇的毒牙;使用忠实历史的教课书会帮很大的忙。在未来即将到来的几十年里,中国的崛起会成为美国外交政策的主导核心。奥巴马将“轴心”移向亚洲是体现美国对其盟友承诺卓有成效的开始。而不是像19世纪英国对德国所为那样,中国要的是安心。美国想让一个有责任感的中国意识到其世界霸权的潜力。而采用粗暴,政治化的向世界贸易组织投诉方式只会给中国增加忧虑。

 

Given the tensions over the islands (and Asia’s irreconcilable versions of history), three immediate safeguards are needed. One is to limit the scope for mishaps to escalate into crises. A collision at sea would be less awkward if a code of conduct set out how vessels should behave and what to do after an accident. Governments would find it easier to work together in emergencies if they routinely worked together in regional bodies. Yet, Asia’s many talking shops lack clout because no country has been ready to cede authority to them.

鉴于岛屿争端趋势(以及亚洲不可调和的历史) 应该立即采取3项捍卫措施。第一就是要遏制灾难加剧演变成危机的范围。如果能制定出一个行为规范法则明确制定船只如何运行以及发生事故后采取什么样的措施,海上撞船事件的尴尬事态就会降低。如果政府能以区域联合体方式彼此合作,就会发现在紧急状态下很容易就可以相互配合。然而,亚洲的许多乐意商讨的团体缺乏影响力因为没有一个国家肯给这些团体放弃各自的架子。

 

A second safeguard is to rediscover ways to shelve disputes over sovereignty, without prejudice. The incoming President Xi should look at the success of his predecessor, Hu Jintao, who put the “Taiwan issue” to one side. With the Senkakus (which Taiwan also claims), both Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping were happy to leave sovereignty to a later generation to decide. That makes even more sense if the islands’ resources are worth something: even state-owned companies would hesitate to put their oil platforms at risk of a military strike. Once sovereignty claims have been shelved, countries can start to share out the resources—or better still, declare the islands and their waters a marine nature reserve.

第二需要捍卫的就是在没有任何偏见的前提下重新开辟渠道将主权争端搁置起来。即将上任的习主席应该看到前任胡锦涛把“台湾问题”方在一边处理的成功之处。对于尖阁群岛问题(台湾方面也曾要求过)毛泽东和邓小平都为能将主权留给后人抉择感到高兴。如果真的把岛屿资源视为最宝贵的,即便是国有公司也会犹豫是否要冒着军事冲突的风险来建立自己的油田。一旦放弃所谓主权要求,国家之间就可以彼此分享这些资源,或干脆就最好宣布岛屿及其相关水域成为一个海洋自然资源,这样做才会更有意义。

 

But not everything can be solved by co-operation, and so the third safeguard is to bolster deterrence. With the Senkakus, America has been unambiguous: although it takes no position on sovereignty, they are administered by Japan and hence fall under its protection. This has enhanced stability, because America will use its diplomatic prestige to stop the dispute escalating and China knows it cannot invade. Mr Obama’s commitment to other Asian islands, however, is unclear.

可不是合作就可以解决一切的问题,所以要采取第三个捍卫方式就是要助长威慑力。就尖阁群岛而言,美国的态度一直是明确的:尽管美国没有主权地位可却可以得到日本的支持,所以能得到日本政府的保护。由于美国利用外交威望制止住争端的恶化,而中国清楚也无法入侵,由此也就增强了该地区的稳定。然而奥巴马政府对其他亚洲岛屿的承诺尚不明朗。

 

The role of China is even more central. Its leaders insist that its growing power represents no threat to its neighbours. They also claim to understand history. A century ago in Europe, years of peace and globalisation tempted leaders into thinking that they could afford to play with nationalist fires without the risk of conflagration. After this summer, Mr Xi and his neighbours need to grasp how much damage the islands are in fact causing. Asia needs to escape from a descent into corrosive mistrust. What better way for China to show that it is sincere about its peaceful rise than to take the lead?

中国的作用愈显更加核心。中国领导人们坚持认为中国正在增长起来的实力并不会威胁到其邻邦。他们还宣称要了解历史。一个世纪前的欧洲状况,连年的和平和全球化演变的趋势会诱导中国领导人们去思考他们可以在不冒烧起“冲突”大火风险的情况下玩儿得起民族主义这把火。这个夏季过后,习先生和他的邻居们都需要领会这些岛屿实际上会带来多大伤害。亚洲需要避免陷入腐蚀性不信任的境地。对中国而言采用什么样的办法向世人表明其和平崛起的真诚态度比独领风骚会更胜一筹呢?

 

 

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