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The rise and rise of Xi Jinping 习近平的一再攀升

Xi who must be obeyed 万人之上的习

The most powerful and popular leader China has had for decades must use these assets wisely 数十载中国握有最高权利的领导人必须要明智地使用这些优势。

Sep 20th 2014

THE madness unleashed by the rule of a charismatic despot, Mao Zedong, left China so traumatised that the late chairman’s successors vowed never to let a single person hold such sway again. Deng Xiaoping, who rose to power in the late1970s, extolled the notion of “collective leadership”. Responsibilities would be shared out among leaders by the Communist Party’s general secretary; big decisions would be made by consensus. This has sometimes been ignored: Deng himself acted the despot in times of crisis. But the collective approach helped  restore stability to China after Mao’s turbulent dictatorship.


XiJin ping, China’s current leader, is now dismantling it. He has become the most powerful Chinese ruler certainly since Deng, and possibly since Mao. Whether this is good or bad for China depends on how Mr Xi uses his power. Mao pushed China to the brink of social and economic collapse, and Deng steered it on the right economic path but squandered a chance to reform it politically. If Mr Xi used his power to reform the way power works in China, he could do his country great good. So far, the signs are mixed.

中 国当今的领导人习近平当下正在去除這一规定。他已经成为了自邓或者说自毛以来当之无愧的握有至高权力的中国统治者,毛把中国推向了社会和经济崩溃的边缘, 是邓扭转乾坤将中国引导上了正确的经济道路,但从政治层面上说丧失了改革的机会。如果习先生用他手中的权利对当今中国统治的方式进行改革的话,是能把他的 国家治理好的。到目前为止,可以说是喜忧参半。

Taking on the party 在党的领导方面担当重任

It may well be that the decision to promote Mr Xi as a single personality at the expense of the group was itself a collective one. Some in China have been hankering for a strongman; a politician who would stamp out corruption, reverse growing inequalities and make the country stand tall abroad. So have many foreign business folk, who want a leader who would smash the monopolies of a bloated state sector and end years of dithering over economic reforms.

以提升习先生一人统掌国家领导权换取集体抉择为代价或许是明智的。尤其是中国一直以来都渴望出现這么一位统帅人物;一个铲除腐败,扭转日益增长的不平等以及 让自己的国家能屹立世人面前的政治家。而对于许多外国的经商者们来说也希望能有个领导人为他们打破那臃肿国企的垄断从而结束多年来止步不前的经济改革。

However the decision came about, Mr Xi has grabbed it and run with it. He has taken charge of secretive committees responsible for reforming government,overhauling the armed forces, finance and cyber-security. His campaign against corruption is the most sweeping in decades. It has snared the former second-in-command of the People’s Liberation Army and targeted the retired chief of China’s massive security apparatus—the highest-ranking official to be investigated for corruption since Mao came to power. The generals, wisely, bow to him: earlier this year state newspapers published pages of expressions of loyalty to him by military commanders.

所幸的是這一决策发生了,习先生拿到了大权也开始行使他的权力。他担起了负责政府改革的神秘委员会的责任,对军队,金融以及网络安全领域进行了大刀阔斧的改 革。他反腐的力度在数十年中可谓最具席卷性的。他拿下了前任中国人民解放军的二号人物以及触及到了中国国安局的已退休头目,也是自毛掌权以来受调查最大的 官员。那些将军们都明智地向他扶手: 从今年初国家报纸刊登长达数页的由军队指挥官们对他所表现出的忠诚文章中就可见一斑了。

He is the first leader to employ a big team to build his public profile. But he also has a flair for it—thanks to his stature (in a height-obsessed country he would tower over all his predecessors except Mao), his toughness and his common touch. One moment he is dumpling-eating with the masses, the next riding in a minibus instead of the presidential limousine. He is now more popular than any leader since Mao.

他是第一位凭借一个大规模的团队为其打造公众形象的领导人。而他凭借着他自身的地位,他的坚韧和平易近人,他的确也有這方面的天赋,(除了毛,他可以在這个 泱泱大国力克群雄夺得了第一把交椅)他突闪与民众共同品尝饺子,他没有乘坐豪华总统座驾而是乔装打扮坐面的。相比自毛以来任何一位领导人,他都是最受群众 喜爱的领导人。

All of this helps Mr Xi in his twofold mission. His first aim is to keep the economy growing fast enough to stave off unrest, while weaning it off an over-dependence on investment in property and infrastructure that threatens to mire it in debt. Mr Xi made a promising start last November, when he declared that market forces would play a decisive role. There have since been encouraging moves, such as giving private companies bigger stakes in sectors that were once the exclusive preserve of state-owned enterprises, and selling shares in firms owned by local governments to private investors. Mr Xi has also started to overhaul the household-registration system, a legacy of the Mao era that makes it difficult for migrants from the countryside to settle permanently in cities. He has relaxed the one-child-per-couple policy, a Deng-era legacy that has led to wide spread abuses.

所有這一切都会给习先生带来事倍功半的效应。他首要的目标就是保持经济快速增长以摆脱不安定因素,同时注重削减过度依赖房产和基础设施的投资,这些投资都会让经济陷入债务危机。习先生去年11 月曾许诺,当时他宣布市场动力将起到决定性作用。于是也就成了一股鼓舞人心的动力,比如,给私营公司更大的份额,而过去一度都是国有企业独霸的,还有就是 把地方政府拥有企业的股份都卖给私人投资者。习先生也开始了彻底整治户籍登记体系,户籍制一度是毛时代遗留产物,就是当时的户籍制度使那些从农村出来的人 们无法永久居住在城市里。他还放宽了一夫妇只生一个孩子的政策,而这个政策在邓时代导致了大规模的滥用职权行为。

More muscle needed 需要更多的力量

It is still far from clear whether Mr Xi’s economic policies will succeed in preventing a sharp slowdown in growth. The latest data suggest the economy is cooling more rapidly than the government had hoped. Much will depend on how far he gets with the second, harder, part of his mission: establishing the rule of law. This will be a central theme of the annual meeting next month of the Communist Party’s Central Committee. The question is whether Mr Xi is prepared for the law to apply to everyone, without fear or favour.

习先生的经济政策能否会成功遏制住增长的骤然下降目前仍不清楚。最新数据表明经济降温比政府希望的要更加迅速。不过更多的要看他使命中更加艰巨的第二部分, 即:建立法规。這也将成为下个月即将召开的中共中央委员会年会的核心议题。问题是无论是恐惧还是赞成,习先生是否都准备将這项法律适用于每个人。

His drive against corruption suggests that the answer is a qualified no. The campaign is characterised by a Maoist neglect of institutions. It has succeeded in instilling fear among officials, but has done little to deal with the causes of graft: an investigative mechanism that is controlled entirely by the party itself, a secret system of appointments to official positions in which loyalty often trumps honesty and controls on free speech that allow the crooked to silence their critics.


MrXi needs to set up an independent body to fight corruption, instead of leaving the job to party investigators and the feuding factions they serve. He should also require officials to declare all sources of income, property and other assets. Instead, he has been rounding up activists calling for such changes almost as vigorously as he has been confronting corruption. In the absence of legal reform, he risks becoming a leader of the old stripe, who pursues vendettas in the name of fighting wrongdoers. That will have two consequences:there will be a new wave of corruption, and resentments among the party elite will, at some point, erupt.

习先生需要建立一个反腐的独立机构,而不是像现在這样把任务交给党组调查人员以及彼此有争执的派系去处理。他也应该要求官员们上报所有收入,房产以及其它财 产来源。相反,他一直以来都对那些呼吁要求如此变革的活动家们进行围捕,就像他一直反腐那样的起劲儿。不对司法进行改革,他会有风险,会成为一位墨守成规 的领导人,他会被认为是打着反腐去进行仇杀。那将会有两个后果:新一轮的腐败浪潮再次卷土而来,再有就是在這方面会使党内元老们的愤懑爆发。

MrXi is making some of the right noises. He says he wants courts to help him“lock power in a cage”. Reforms are being tinkered with to make local courts less beholden to local governments. But he needs to go further by abolishing the party’s shadowy “political-legal committees”, which decide sensitive cases.The party should stop meddling in the appointment of judges (and, indeed, of legislators).


The effect of such reforms would be huge. They would signal a willingness by the party to begin loosening its monopoly of power and accepting checks and balances. Deng once said that economic reform would fail without political reform. Mr Xi last month urged foot-dragging officials to “dare to breakthrough and try” reform. China’s leader should heed his own words and those of Deng. He should use his enormous power for the greatest good, and change the system.



    1 条评论

  1. 1. 七成新 - 2014年9月21日 21:53


    老七, 你好吗?