分类:北美股票常识 的存档信息

炒股的正确思考模式:先要不亏钱,然后才赚钱

2007年9月9日 ¦ 544 浏览
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编者前言:

如果你喜欢看Deal or No Deal这个电视节目,你一定会设身处地问自己:如果换了我来做这个游戏,我是继续碰运气呢,还是接受已经到手的钱。正如文中所讲的,大多数人选择的是碰运气,因为大家只关心能赚多少钱,而不考虑失误和亏损的可能,也就是只想回报、不问风险。这和买彩票的心态是一样的,虽然中头奖和被雷劈的概率差不多,每次投入的钱等于100%亏损,但人们还是经不住诱惑,原因就是只专注于“有可能”赚到的钱,而忘记了更大的可能性是亏钱。在股票投资中,我们面临着同样的问题。你为什么喜欢买低价的股票?为什么想知道目标价?为什么决定炒外汇?是不是因为满眼都是哗啦啦的钞票,希望更多更快地赚到钱?

可是你真的赚到了吗?要不要换一个思考模式,先不要考虑赚钱,想一想怎么避免失误,怎么保证不亏钱。电影《Wall Street》中的Gordon Gekko说过一句至理名言:I don’t throw darts at a board. I bet on sure things. Read Sun-Tzu, The Art of War. Every battle is won before it’s ever fought. 设计一个交易系统,列出所有可能失败的因素,选择成功概率最高的机会下手,争取每一次都有十足的把握。当你把所有亏钱的可能性都排除,剩下的自然就是赚钱了……

编者:三维预测网站 - http://www.3dforecast.com/

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Deal or Bad Deal?

Be smart when taking risks with your own money

By Chuck Jaffe, MarketWatch.com, March 15, 2006

A friend of mine warned me that I would hate the hit NBC game show “Deal or No Deal,” so I didn’t bother watching until last week, when it was being aired while I was captive on two cross-country flights.

He was right; I hate the show.

The problem is that now that I have seen it, I can’t stop watching because it’s a live-action financial train wreck where people showcase the kind of thinking that short-circuits investment decisions. Contestants routinely make horrible, nonsensical, illogical choices that, when not made in the context of a game show, can create real financial hardships.

To see why that is, you have to understand the game and the underpinnings of financial decisions.

“Deal or No Deal,” hosted by comedian Howie Mandel, involves a contestant who is given the choice of 26 cases, each held by a model and filled with a card representing an amount of money between one cent and $1 million. The amounts are placed randomly in the cases.

The contestant picks one case to be their own, then proceeds to call out numbers, so that the models can open other cases and reveal their contents.

As those cases are opened, the potential reward awaiting the contestant starts to take shape. Knock out the low-dollar values, and the odds of getting a big reward increase.

Periodically, however, the game’s “banker” calls host Mandel. He is making an offer to the contestant of a certain amount of money, effectively the “expected value” of all of the remaining amounts left on the board. Contestants can accept the banker’s deal, or open more cases, knowing that the very next case could wipe out their hope for capturing the big jackpot, and that the banker will respond by lowering the next offer accordingly.

Take the case of a recent participant, who was down to four possibilities, two under $250, then $50,000 and $500,000. He was offered nearly $140,000 to walk away, and he had a 75 percent chance of leaving with an amount much lower. Never mind that the offer was several times the guy’s annual salary, the guy was playing with fire.

Of course, it’s a game. Talk to anyone who has seen the show and they will say how they might take chances on television that wouldn’t happen in real life.

But if they have a life insurance policy and are offered a life-settlement or viatical settlement — basically allowing them to get a slug of money now to walk away from the eventual benefits of their policy — they’re facing a “Deal or No Deal” kind of situation.

Even in choosing stocks, where an investor might be deciding between a safe, steady return expected from an established dividend-paying stock and the potential rocket-like returns of the red-hot issue-du-jour, the decision is too often based on the wrong inputs.

“People don’t have a good intuitive grasp of probabilities, and thus they will be swayed by things that shouldn’t be swayed by,” says Terence Odean, a professor at the University of California-Berkeley who examines behavioral finance. “It applies to investors just like it does people on the game show. They see the potential of a big number, and they take too much risk trying to get it, and wind up making poor choices as a result.”

Anyone watching the game can see many different types of poor behaviors at work. Players will knock out a few low numbers in a row and will say — or be told by their supporters — that they are on a “hot streak,” when in truth each pick is random and they have no way of divining the right numbers.

They overestimate their abilities, or see trends where none exist given the random nature of the game.

They have a tough time figuring the probabilities, even though the smart money — the “banker” in the case of the game — is doing just that.

“People cannot factor in uncertainty, so they edit it out, discount it and ignore it,” says Donald McGregor of MacGregor-Bates Inc., a Eugene, Ore. firm that does research and consulting in judgment and decision-making. “So they focus on the outcomes and remove the uncertainty and deal only with what is concrete and in front of them.”

“When that happens, they tend to focus on the big payoff, not the potential loss. It’s why people buy lottery tickets, despite horrendous odds and don’t think about what they are losing while the spend hundreds or thousands of dollars. It’s why they pass up a good thing to take one more shot at $500,000 on the show, and it’s why they look at initial public offerings and remember the Microsofts and Googles without remembering the many other companies that totally failed at the same time.”

While most of us will never be contestants on a game show, we are constantly facing gambles and decisions. Finding the ones where the numbers work just a bit in your favor tends to be better than always playing for the big score.

It’s why you should insure your house, but not your DVD player; the coverage on the appliance is expensive for the potential payout, while the house is such a big thing that it demands the coverage because it would be so difficult to replace.

“People have to understand that there is a point where their decisions go from being risky — which is fine — to being reckless,” says Meir Statman, a professor of finance specializing in investor decision-making at Santa Clara University. “The point often depends on someone’s circumstances. A person with a lot of money can take more chances; to them, a few thousand dollars difference is probably not a life-changing event.

“What people must realize is that good outcomes aren’t going to happen just because they’re hoping for the best. Factoring in the downside risk, coming up with a probability for success and deciding just which risks you can stomach is the best way to get through most financial decisions without having too much regret.”

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如何在股票投资中赚取高额回报:放长线、钓大鱼

2007年9月4日 ¦ 306 浏览
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编者前言:

有很多统计数字显示,在牛市的上涨行情中,大多数投资者,不仅是个人,也包括共同基金和对冲基金,都比不过大盘指数的收益率。出现这种现象的原因有两个:一方面,很多人从一开始就没有采用中长线的投资策略,认为自己能够抓住短期的谷底和顶部,反复交易获得更高的回报。但事实是短期走势很难把握,看似回调的走势却很快出现反弹。而普通人的心态通常是看到涨了很多就不敢再进场(盼望回调),等终于决定入市交易时,股价已经涨了很多,远远超过前面退场时的价位。另一方面,很多采用中长线投资策略的人无法判断大盘是否以及何时形成最终的顶部,涨得越多越担心“是不是该跌了”,稍有风吹草动就平仓退场,而一旦退场就轻易不敢再入市,只能看着大盘上涨。Jesse Livermore说“Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”这是经久不衰的至理名言,也是为什么大多数人都无法胜过大盘指数的原因。通过阅读这篇文章,我们希望大家能够树立“放长线、钓大鱼”的投资观念,从一开始就想好进场的信号是什么,退场的信号是什么,没有明确的信号就不做任何行动。记住,要想在股市中获得高额的回报,耐心和纪律是至关重要的,这是我们另外一篇文章讨论过的问题。

编者:三维预测网站 - www.3DForecast.com

以下节选自经典著作《Reminiscences of A Stock Operator》第五章,该书讲述了上个世纪初华尔街投机大师Jesse Livermore的传奇一生。本文内容很长,但是非常精彩,值得反复阅读。

Studying my winning plays in Fullerton’s office I discovered that although I often was 100 per cent right on the market that is, in my diagnosis of conditions and general trend — I was not making as much money as my market “rightness” entitled me to. Why wasn’t I?

There was as much to learn from partial victory as from defeat.

For instance, I had been bullish from the very start of a bull market, and I had backed my opinion by buying stocks. An advance followed, as I had clearly foreseen. So far, all very well. But what else did I do? Why, I listened to the elder statesmen and curbed my youthful impetuousness. I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do; for I often took profits and waited for a reaction that never came. And I saw my stock go kiting up ten points more and I sitting there with my four-point profit safe in my conservative pocket. They say you never grow poor taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.

Where I should have made twenty thousand dollars I made two thousand. That was what my conservatism did for me. About the time I discovered what a small percentage of what I should have made I was getting I discovered something else, and that is that suckers differ among themselves according to the degree of experience.

The tyro knows nothing, and everybody, including himself, knows it. But the next, or second, grade thinks he knows a great deal and makes others feel that way too. He is the experienced sucker, who has studied not the market itself but a few remarks about the market made by a still higher grade of suckers. The second-grade sucker knows how to keep from losing his money in some of the ways that get the raw beginner. It is this semisucker rather than the 100 per cent article who is the real all-the-year-round support of the commission houses. He lasts about three and a half years on an average, as compared with a single season of from three to thirty weeks, which is the usual Wall Street life of a first offender. It is naturally the semisucker who is always quoting the famous trading aphorisms and the various rules of the game. He knows all the don’ts that ever fell from the oracular lips of the old stagers excepting the principal one, which is: Don’t be a sucker!

This semisucker is the type that thinks he has cut his wisdom teeth because he loves to buy on declines. He waits for them. He measures his bargains by the number of points it has sold off from the top. In big bull markets the plain unadulterated sucker, utterly ignorant of rules and precedents, buys blindly because he hopes blindly. He makes most of the money until one of the healthy reactions takes it away from him at one fell swoop. But the Careful Mike sucker does what I did when I thought I was playing the game intelligently according to the intelligence of others. I knew I needed to change my bucket-shop methods and I thought I was solving my problem with any change, particularly one that assayed high gold values according to the experienced traders among the customers.

Most let us call’em customers — are alike. You find very few who can truthfully say that Wall Street doesn’t owe them money. In Fullerton’s there were the usual crowd. All grades! Well, there was one old chap who was not like the others. To begin with, he was a much older man. Another thing was that he never volunteered advice and never bragged of his winnings. He was a great hand for listening very attentively to the others. He did not seem very keen to get tips — that is, he never asked the talkers what they’d heard or what they knew. But when somebody gave him one he always thanked the tipster very politely. Sometimes he thanked the tipster again — when the tip turned out O.K. But if it went wrong he never whined, so that nobody could tell whether he followed it or let it slide by. It was a legend of the office that the old jigger was rich and could swing quite a line. But he wasn’t donating much to the firm in the way of commissions; at least not that anyone could see. His name was Partridge, but they nicknamed him Turkey behind his back, because he was so thick-chested and had a habit of strutting about the various rooms, with the point of his chin resting on his breast.

The customers, who were all eager to be shoved and forced into doing things so as to lay the blame for failure on others, used to go to old Partridge and tell him what some friend of a friend of an insider had advised them to do in a certain stock. They would tell him what they had not done with the tip so he would tell them what they ought to do. But whether the tip they had was to buy or to sell, the old chap’s answer was always the same.

The customer would finish the tale of his perplexity and then ask: “What do you think I ought to do?”

Old Turkey would cock his head to one side, contemplate his fellow customer with a fatherly smile, and finally he would say very impressively, “You know, it’s a bull market!” Time and again I heard him say, “Well, this is a bull market, you know!” as though he were giving to you a priceless talisman wrapped up in a million-dollar accident-insurance policy. And of course I did not get his meaning.

One day a fellow named Elmer Harwood rushed into the office, wrote out an order and gave it to the clerk. Then he rushed over to where Mr. Partridge was listening politely to John Fanning’s story of the time he overheard Keene give an order to one of his brokers and all that John made was a measly three points on a hundred shares and of course the stock had to go up twenty-four points in three days right after John sold out. It was at least the fourth time that John had told him that tale of woe, but old Turkey was smiling as sympathetically as if it was the first time he heard it.

Well, Elmer made for the old man and, without a word of apology to John Fanning, told Turkey, “Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors. My people say the market is entitled to a reaction and that I’ll be able to buy it back cheaper. So you’d better do likewise. That is, if you’ve still got yours.”

Elmer looked suspiciously at the man to whom he had given the original tip to buy. The amateur, or gratuitous, tipster always thinks he owns the receiver of his tip body and soul, even before he knows how the tip is going to turn out.

“Yes, Mr. Harwood, I still have it. Of course!” said Turkey gratefully. It was nice of Elmer to think of the old chap. “Well, now is the time to take your profit and get in again on the next dip,” said Elmer, as if he had just made out the deposit slip for the old man. Failing to perceive enthusiastic gratitude in the beneficiary’s face Elmer went on: “I have just sold every share I owned!”

From his voice and manner you would have conservatively estimated it at ten thousand shares.

But Mr. Partridge shook his head regretfully and whined, “No! No! I can’t do that!”

“What?” yelled Elmer.

“I simply can’t!” said Mr. Partridge. He was in great trouble.

“Didn’t I give you the tip to buy it?”

“You did, Mr. Harwood, and I am very grateful to you. Indeed, I am, sir. But –”

“Hold on! Let me talk! And didn’t that stock go up seven points in ten days? Didn’t it?”

“It did, and I am much obliged to you, my dear boy. But I couldn’t think of selling that stock.”

“You couldn’t?” asked Elmer, beginning to look doubtful himself. It is a habit with most tip givers to be tip takers.

“No, I couldn’t.”

“Why not?” And Elmer drew nearer.

“Why, this is a bull market!” The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and detailed explanation.

“That’s all right,” said Elmer, looking angry because of his disappointment. “I know this is a bull market as well as you do. But you’d better slip them that stock of yours and buy it back on the reaction. You might as well reduce the cost to yourself.”

“My dear boy,” said old Partridge, in great distress “my dear boy, if I sold that stock now I’d lose my position; and then where would I be?”

Elmer Harwood threw up his hands, shook his head and walked over to me to get sympathy: “Can you beat it?” he asked me in a stage whisper. “I ask you!”

I didn’t say anything. So he went on: “I give him a tip on Climax Motors. He buys five hundred shares. He’s got seven points’ profit and I advise him to get out and buy ‘em back on the reaction that’s overdue even now. And what does he say when I tell him? He says that if he sells he’ll lose his job. What do you know about that?”

“I beg your pardon, Mr. Harwood; I didn’t say I’d lose my job,” cut in old Turkey. “I said I’d lose my position. And when you are as old as I am and you’ve been through as many booms and panics as I have, you’ll know that to lose your position is something nobody can afford; not even John D. Rockefeller. I hope the stock reacts and that you will be able to repurchase your line at a substantial concession, sir. But I myself can only trade in accordance with the experience of many years. I paid a high price for it and I don’t feel like throwing away a second tuition fee. But I am as much obliged to you as if I had the money in the bank. It’s a bull market, you know.” And he strutted away, leaving Elmer dazed.

What old Mr. Partridge said did not mean much to me until I began to think about my own numerous failures to make as much money as I ought to when I was so right on the general market. The more I studied the more I realized how wise that old chap was. He had evidently suffered from the same defect in his young days and knew his own human weaknesses. He would not lay himself open to a temptation that experience had taught him was hard to resist and had always proved expensive to him, as it was to me.

I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.

And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level, which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine — that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.

The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight.

Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks. Then get out of all your stocks; get out for keeps! Wait until you see — or if you prefer, until you think you see the turn of the market; the beginning of a reversal of general conditions. You have to use your brains and your vision to do this; otherwise my advice would be as idiotic as to tell you to buy cheap and sell dear. One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world. They have cost stock traders, in the aggregate, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent.

Another thing I noticed in studying my plays in Fullerton’s office after I began to trade less unintelligently was that my initial operations seldom showed me a loss. That naturally made me decide to start big. It gave me confidence in my own judgment before I allowed it to be vitiated by the advice of others or even by my own impatience at times. Without faith in his own judgment no man can go very far in this game. That is about all I have learned to study general conditions, to take a position and stick to it. I can wait without a twinge of impatience. I can see a setback without being shaken, knowing that it is only temporary. I have been short one hundred thousand shares and I have seen a big rally coming. I have figured and figured correctly — that such a rally as I felt was inevitable, and even wholesome, would make a difference of one million dollars in my paper profits. And I nevertheless have stood pat and seen half my paper profit wiped out, without once considering the advisability of covering my shorts to put them out again on the rally. I knew that if I did I might lose my position and with it the certainty of a big killing. It is the big swing that makes the big money for you.

If I learned all this so slowly it was because I learned by my mistakes, and some time always elapses between making a mistake and realizing it, and more time between realizing it and exactly determining it. But at the same time I was faring pretty comfortably and was very young, so that I made up in other ways. Most of my winnings were still made in part through my tape reading because the kind of markets we were having lent themselves fairly well to my method. I was not losing either as often or as irritatingly as in the beginning of my New York experiences. It wasn’t anything to be proud of, when you think that I had been broke three times in less than two years. And as I told you, being broke is a very efficient educational agency.

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真实的面对自己 - 止损的纪律和Trailing Stop移动止损

2007年8月29日 ¦ 463 浏览
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编者前言:

一位哲人说过:“生活中没有对与错,只有真和假”。在股市交易中,我们不可能每次都看得准确,总有失误的时候,而止损的纪律就变得非常重要。这个止损的道理谁都懂,只是说起来容易做起来难。一个成功的投资者必须能够真实地面对自己、面对现实,坦然地接受失败,不逃避、不幻想。要知道,如果总是不止损的话,本钱很快就会亏掉,到那时就什么技巧和信号也谈不上了。如果你发现自己反复多次都不能及时止损,每次都不知所措、下不了手,那就需要在进场交易的同时,同步设下止损单(最好是Trailing Stop移动止损),让证券交易所的电脑系统“替你”平仓退场。即便在平仓之后,市场很快又恢复原来的走势,你也无需后悔,看准信号之后再重新进场也不迟。因为只要留得青山在,就有的是机会让你从头再来。巴菲特有一句名言:Rule No.1: Never Lose Money. Rule No.2: Never Forget Rule No.1。很多人的失败都不是因为信号错了或者判断错了,而是不能真实地面对一时的失误,不能及时止损,最后变得深陷困境、难以自拔。如果你发现自己真的无法控制情绪,犹豫不决,舍不得下手,请把这项任务交给电脑来自动完成。你很可能最终发现,电脑其实比人类更“聪明”……

编者:三维预测网站 - www.3DForecast.com

It’s about being smart, not right Being wrong doesn’t have to mean losses

By Tomi Kilgore, MarketWatch.com, June 2, 2003

Charts continue to warn of a pullback, as a number of technical indicators have reached overbought extremes. The U.S. dollar has recently hit a record low versus the euro. Economic uncertainty and deflation fears have sent long-term interest rates tumbling to five-decade lows.

Most of the time, stocks would at least take probably take a breather amid all those headwinds.

But prices keep going up.

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX: news, chart, profile) closed Friday up 1.5 percent at 963.59, and has rallied 18 percent since the end of September 2002.

If it can stay above 848.18 through the end of June, the benchmark index will have posted gains for three consecutive quarters for the first time since the fourth quarter of 1998, and the first and second quarters of 1999 — the good ol’ days.

You can’t control or predict what will happen with the market on any given day or quarter, as unforeseen fundamental factors can pop up without notice. And even if you can predict the fundamentals, the market won’t necessarily follow them. Just ask your mutual fund manager (See below).

The only time you really need to do your homework is when you put on a position. Because once you do, the rest is about money management. It’s about making good, sound decisions that help you preserve capital during whatever possible scenario you can think of.

It’s all about profits

Just because you think the market may go down doesn’t mean you can’t keep making money if you’re “wrong,” and the market goes up.

“Technically speaking there are many reasons — overbought conditions, too much optimistic sentiment, intermarket problems, etc. — to expect a normal pause,” said Ralph Acampora, technical analyst from Prudential.

Lowry Research’s Richard Dickson concurred, saying the market was “extremely vulnerable” to selling pressure, and will likely suffer a near term pullback. He noted, however, that the negative signals he sees tend to be short-term in nature, and so any pullback is likely to be “relatively moderate.”

Acampora also pointed out that the stock market’s internal indicators, primarily overall breadth, continue to point higher despite the negative technical backdrop.

“Whenever we encountered this dilemma,” Acampora said, “we always fall back on the old adage: ‘Never fight the tape.’”

As all of the most seasoned veterans know, it’s not about being right or wrong, it’s about making money.

Let MOST of it ride!

One of the most important Wall Street axioms, right alongside “The trend is your friend,” is: “Cut your losses short, and let your profits ride.”

There are a number of different possible outcomes when you enter a trade: 1) a large profit; 2) a small profit; 3) breakeven; 4) a small loss; and 5) a large loss.

The idea is that if you cut out the large losses, small profits, breakeven and small losses will cancel each other out, and you’ll be left with large profits.

Of course, that’s easier said than done. Emotions such as greed, fear and pride always get in the way, and profits are taken too early, and losses are left to widen.

It’s takes a lot of discipline, and the lack of hindsight, to make it work.

As much as I’d like to believe that when I took money out of the market it had something to do with how smart I was, it probably had much more to do with how careful (or boring) I was.

There are a number of different scenarios that could work for each situation. For example, if you think the market may go down based just on how far it’s gone and how fast, just remember there are investors out there that may be just as afraid to miss out on potential gains.

Unless the market actually acts on these fears to some degree, take a deep breath and resist the urge. A good idea is to set a stop loss on some of your position — the operating word being “some” — at some arbitrary lower level, such as at the low of the last down day.

You can then continue to raise the stop if the market keeps climbing. Even if the amount of the stop is small relative to the size of the overall position, this symbolic gesture can relieve enough stress to allow you to think clearly when a “normal” pullback occurs.

Or if you see a bunch of actual caution signs but the market keeps going, take “some” profits anyway. If you stop acting on the signals that you’ve found to work most of the time, it can cost you dearly when “normal” trading conditions return.

If you are “wrong,” you are still involved and can always re-establish your full position. If you are “right,” and the market starts to decline further, you can continue to close out pieces of your position until you’re satisfied with your exposure to risk.

It’s also not a bad idea to lighten up after the market runs even if you are still bullish, so you’re not handcuffed if the market does pullback. If you’re “right,” you can always buy back the portion you sold when the market starts to run again. You sacrifice a small percentage gain for an opportunity to profit from a short-term decline.

So forget about being right or wrong, just try to play it smart.

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投资北美股市的最佳选择:ETF指数基金

2007年8月20日 ¦ 662 浏览
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作者:Raymond Wang,三维预测网站

ETF的英文全称是Exchange Traded Funds,它在中国大陆被译为“交易所交易基金”,在香港被译为“交易所买卖基金”,在台湾被译为“指数股票型基金”。

ETF是一种跟踪市场指数、可以在交易所自由买卖的开放式股票基金。大家可以把ETF理解为一种特殊形式的共同基金(也称互惠基金):发行机构把某个指数的所有成份股票买来,汇合到一起形成共同基金,然后再分成一小块一小块拿到股市上卖,它们就成了可以自由买卖的ETF指数基金。你买一支ETF就相当于购买了这个指数里的所有成份股。

ETF在北美市场发展很快,而且种类繁多:有跟踪大盘指数的,也有跟踪行业指数的,还有跟踪其它国家股市的……目前更有追踪债券市场、黄金价格和石油价格的ETF,真是让人眼花缭乱。

目前在北美股票市场交易的ETF主要分为以下几个系列:

  • SPDRs:Standard & Poor’s Depositary Receipt,由State Street发行,跟踪S&P的大盘和行业指数。其中最著名的是SPY(跟踪S&P 500大型指数)和MDY(跟踪S&P 400中型指数)。另外还有九支行业SPDR,比较活跃的有金融行业的XLF和能源行业的XLE;
  • iShares:由Barclays Global Investors发行,包括几十支跟踪大盘、行业和国际市场的指数基金。著名的跟踪中国股市的FXI指数基金就是这家公司发行的。另外,iShares还有四支跟踪债券市场的ETF,其中三支是政府债券、一支是企业债券;
  • HOLDRs:Holding Company Depositary Receipts,由Merrill Lynch发行,其中多数是跟踪特定的行业板块,比较知名的有半导体的SMH,生物科技的BBH,石油服务的OIH,制药的PPH,零售的RTH和互联网的HHH等;
  • VIPERs:美国最大的基金公司Vanguard也不甘寂寞,发行了两支指数股,其中Vanguard Total Stock Market VIPERs(VTI)跟踪的是Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index,而Vanguard Extended Market VIPERs(VXF)跟踪的是Wilshire 4500 Completion Index

ETF具有共同基金的好处,例如投资多样化(Diversified),但它还有很多胜过共同基金的特点:例如,它可以像其它股票一样全天交易,可以卖空(Short),可以用保证金(Margin)购买,无需缴纳共同基金的管理费,避免不必要的资产增值税等等。可以说,ETF出现以来,共同基金已经越来越失去了吸引力。聪明的投资者已经发现,75%的共同基金在过去10年间的平均年回报率超不过S&P 500指数,这真是不如买一支SPY划算。

现在,越来越多的投资者开始认识和喜欢上了ETF,特别是QQQQ这支跟踪Nasdaq-100指数的ETF几乎每天都是交易量的“老大哥”。以下是根据日平均成交量排列的10支最“热门”的ETF:

  • QQQQ — 俗称Qubes,跟踪NASDAQ-100科技股指数,股价大约是指数值的1/40;
  • SPY — 俗称Spiders,跟踪S&P 500大型股指数,股价大约是指数值的1/10;
  • IWM — 全称iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund,跟踪Russell 2000小型股指数,股价大约是指数值的1/10;
  • DIA — 俗称Diamonds,跟踪道琼斯30种工业平均指数,股价大约是指数值的1/100;
  • XLF — 全称Financial Select Sector SPDR,包括九十多家有代表性的银行、保险和证券等大型金融企业;
  • XLE — 全称Energy Select Sector SPDR,代表三十多家石油开采和能源服务行业的大型企业;
  • EWJ — 全称iShares MSCI Japan Index Fund,是一支跟踪日本股票指数的ETF;
  • SMH — 全称Merrill Lynch Semiconductor HOLDRS,涵盖二十多家大型半导体企业,代表了半导体行业的股价趋势;
  • QID — 全称UltraShort QQQ ProShares,它是ProFunds公司发行的看跌型杠杆式ETF,理论上QQQQ下跌一个点,QID就上涨两个点;
  • MDY — 全称Standard & Poor’s MidCap SPDR,跟踪S&P 400中型股指数,股价大约是指数值的1/5。

注意,除了HOLDRS以外,其它ETF可以最少以一股成交,但HOLDRS只能以100股为单位进行买卖,像53股和167股这样的交易单不会被接受。

ETF特别适合于中长线投资者,因为他们最看重的是“大势”,没有精力研究各种公司的业绩,不希望看到自己的投资组合因突发事件而大起大落(持有个股会时常发生这种现象)。这样的投资者可以选择1-2支流通性好的ETF,在股市触底后买进,等大势逆转后抛出,交易次数不多,风险相对较低,能够踏踏实实地睡个好觉。

声明:请尊重作者版权,本文作者允许您在其它网站或媒体转载全文,但转载时必须注明“作者:Raymond Wang,三维预测网站”或“文章来源:三维预测网站”,谢谢!

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谁是股市中的赢家,小股民如何多赚钱、少赔钱

2007年8月11日 ¦ 505 浏览
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作者:Raymond Wang,三维预测网站

大家一定听说过:股市中80%的人赔钱,20%的人赚钱。也有人说,10个人里有7个赔钱,2个不赔不赚,剩下只有一个赚。说法不一,但结论都是一个:股市中赔钱的是大多数,赚钱的很少。那么,为什么大多数人都赔钱呢?究竟什么样的人赚到了钱呢?要回答这个问题,我们先要从股票的本质说起。

股票是上市公司用来融资的工具。一个公司要想发展必须要有资金,生产、宣传、发工资等等无处不需要钱,而资金的来源或者是经营者自掏腰包,或者是向银行贷款,或者是使用90年代最“时髦”的做法 — 从股民手里“圈钱”。股票的设计机制(Design Purpose)是为了把钱从大众的手里分离出来,汇到一起,交给上市公司使用。至于上市公司拿到钱以后怎么使用,理论上讲,股民(股东)是有权知道和过问的。但实际上,大多数人都不知道到底有多少钱用于购买设备,有多少给总裁发Bonus,又有多少拿去夏威夷开Party了。

上市公司发行股票是为了从股民手中“圈钱”,你认为它们拿到钱之后,还会还给你吗?肯定不会。从本质上讲,股票就是One-way Ticket,你把钱交上去了,就不要再指望能拿回来,至少从上市公司那里是要不回来了。

至于从哪里能要回来,这是我在下一篇文章里要讲述的。本文的目的是要提醒大家看清股市的本质,不要盲目乐观,只有接受你一定会Lose的现实,才有可能Win.

在并不遥远的过去,人们曾一度认为股市就是摇钱树,是永远会下蛋的鸡。随便买哪一支股票都能挣钱,而且谁都可以挣钱,连看大门的老汉,擦地板的大妈都在津津乐道他(她)买了那支股票,挣了多少钱。人们在谈论Dotcom公司如何“烧”钱的时候,言语中流露出羡慕和嫉妒的心情,却没有好好想一想他们“烧”的是谁的钱。如果所有人都从股市中挣了钱,这钱是从哪里来的?有人一路印钞票吗?

直到今天,当上市公司作假账的丑闻被揭发后,当华尔街分析师口是心非、欺瞒大众的新闻曝光后,当总裁CEO们一刻不停地抛售自己公司的股票,对外却百般夸赞公司“业绩”,直到公司破产的那一刻竟然还能拿几百万元的“遣送费”…… 善良的人们,你是否直到今天才明白谁是股市中真正的赢家?真正的赢家就是发行股票的上市公司,或者再具体一些,就是上市公司的大股东和大老板们。他们才是Laugh All The Way to The Bank的人。

当然,上市公司并不是唯一的赢家,还有帮助他们发行股票的投资银行(Investment Banker)和经手买卖交易的证券经纪人(Broker)。他们一个是向上市公司抽取佣金(当然还是你买股票的钱),一个是向广大股民收取交易费 — 我们每下一个交易单,不论是赔是赚,都要交10-30元不等的交易费。你不觉得证券经纪是旱涝保收的职业吗?

在股票200多年的历史长河中,投资者买股票的主要目是为了每年获取股息红利(Dividend),但发展到今天,股票几乎变成了投机、炒作、一夜暴富的工具。你看看Nasdaq中包含多少股票,其中又有多少是发股息的?今天,股市已经变成了财富再分配的的场所,而且不幸的是,没有从富人的手中把钱分给“穷人”(平民百姓),反倒是大多数人的钱被收集起来塞进了少数人的腰包。对多数人来讲,投资股市是Loser’s Game,它跟进赌场玩饺子机虽然不同,但House Always Wins, 这是铁的事实。

股市甚至还不如赌场。赌场的游戏规则是严格、透明的,根本不和你耍手腕,人家靠的是概率,稳稳当当地赢你。而你也知道自己赢的机会很小,只是图个消遣,一个愿打,一个愿挨。然而股市就不一样了,你可是满怀希望要到股市中挣钱的,没有一个人在买股票之前笑着对亲友说:“我知道肯定会输,我就是来玩的。”可是,到头来你真的输了,而且输得很窝火。不是吗?你难道看不出来有很多人一直在设计陷害你吗?你最近一定读了很多媒体报道,什么某某著名企业作假账,夸大业绩,高层主管对外一直说前景怎么怎么好,私下却马不停蹄地抛售手中的股票;又有某某著名华尔街分析师被人揭发,他对外极力推荐的股票,私人邮件中却被贬为一文不值(真的是最后跌到几分钱)。你认为这些是“极少数人”的“极个别”现象吗?你认为以前从来没发生过或很少发生过类似事件吗?上网查看一下历史吧,看看过去几次股市崩盘的前后都发生了什么事吧,我这里就不给你一一列举了。

小股民们真的是很可怜,大多数人自己不做研究,没有时间也没有兴趣分析一大堆数据。没办法,只能看电视、看报纸来“听专家的意见”,然后凭自己的感觉差不多就进去了。这些“专家”的意见也不知怎么了,这么乱:股票涨了,他说是因为今天公布的经济数字鼓舞了士气;股票跌了,他说虽然今天的消息利好,但投资者根本不听,消极对抗。更有趣的是,股市一路下跌,却一路有人跳出来说经济前景怎么怎么好,股价已经如何如何太低了,买吧,真值啊,Buy and Hold……

你知道那些到CNBC上高谈阔论的“专家”,电视台不付他一分钱吗?你知道华尔街分析师“免费”让你看分析报告,可他每年天文数字般的工资是从哪来的吗?为什么分析师的股票评级(Analyst Rating)中很少见到“卖”的字样?你的基金经理自己口袋的钱也投入到这个基金了吗?

这是个公平竞技的场所吗?

善良的小股民们,好好想想吧,你想赢,人家也想赢。人家要是不输的话,你怎么赢?你要是不输的话,人家怎么赢?

如果你在股市中赔了,不要抱怨,因为这是不可避免的现实。如果你赚了,不要盲目乐观,你可能幸运,也可能有聪明才智,但无论如何都要更加小心。因为在你还没有爬到上市公司的高层之前,在你还没有遇到可信赖的投资顾问之前,个人投资股市唯有精于研究、善于保护,你才有可能会赢。

声明:请尊重作者版权,本文作者允许您在其它网站或媒体转载全文,但转载时必须注明“作者:Raymond Wang,三维预测网站”或“文章来源:三维预测网站”,谢谢!

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