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巴菲特的名言:永远不要亏钱

2008年10月7日 ¦ 675 浏览
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作者: Raymond Wang,三维预测投资通讯 - 3DFN.com

沃伦.巴菲特是大家耳濡目染的名字,这位有史以来最伟大的投资家秉持价值投资的理念,数十年如一日,创造出一个又一个的辉煌战绩,今年(2008年)更是摘下世界首富的头衔。

巴菲特的精彩语录有很多,其中广为流传的一句话是:Rule No.1: Never Lose Money. Rule No.2: Never Forget Rule No.1.(第一条原则:永远不要亏钱。第二条原则:永远不要忘记第一条原则)

这句话初看起来似乎不现实,因为任何投资都存在风险,亏钱是不可避免的,不可能每一笔交易都成功。但是,我认为这句话讲的不是操作层面上的技术问题,而是思想层面上的意识问题。我们应该从以下几个方面理解它的真谛:

首先,在众多的投资产品中,我们应该选择成功概率最高、自己最有把握的产品进行投资。假设有两种投资产品,一种能赚很多钱,但不稳定,做好了一次能赚一千 元,做坏了一次能亏一千元;而另一种投资产品赚得很少,但很稳定,每次只能赚一元钱,但是保证10次有9次都成功。你会选择哪种产品来投资呢?我相信,如 果是巴菲特的话,他会选择第二种,因为它的成功概率最高,看似赚得不多,但只要日积月累,最终的回报就非常大。

其次,除了投资产品,我们也要选择成功概率最高的投资方法和投资策略。很多人把投资(investment)和炒作(speculation)混为一谈, 其实这是两种完全不同的策略和方法,投资追求的是长期的、稳定的回报,而炒作追求的是短期的、超常的回报。短期炒作(短线交易)的风险非常大,因为做得好 就会赚很多,搞砸了就会亏很多。如果你相信巴菲特的第一条原则:永远不要亏钱,你就不能做短线交易,而是应该放长线、钓大鱼,因为这才是成功概率最高的投 资方法。

最后,我们还要考虑一旦失误怎么办。因为即使找到成功概率最高的投资产品和投资方法,这个世界上也没有100%一定会成功的东西。失误总是会有的,一旦某 项投资出现亏损时,我们应该及时止损,不能让小亏变成大亏,甚至血本无归。从这个角度讲,我认为巴菲特所说的“永远不要亏钱”是指面对亏损难以容忍的态 度,绝对不能看着亏损而无动于衷,必须坦然面对,果断止损。

巴菲特所说的“第一条原则:永远不要亏钱。第二条原则:永远不要忘记第一条原则”实际上是在告诉世人,面对任何投资决定,先不要考虑怎么赚钱,而是要考虑 怎么不亏钱。选择成功概率最高的机会下手,列出所有可能失败的因素,把亏钱的可能性都排除,剩下的自然就是赚钱了。

声明:请尊重作者版权,本文作者允许您在其它网站或媒体转载全文,但转载时必须注明“作者:Raymond Wang,三维预测投资通讯 3DFN.com”或者“文章来源:三维预测投资通讯 3DFN.com”,谢谢!

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股票书籍推荐:股票作手回忆录

2008年1月29日 ¦ 1,145 浏览
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作者: Raymond Wang,三维预测投资通讯 - 3DFN.com

如果你已经有几年的炒股经验,你肯定听说过《股票作手回忆录》这本书。如果你是新股民,你更要读一读这本书,因为它是一本有着70年历史的“股票圣经”,是一代又一代金融专业人士必读的投资宝典。这本书的英文原名是Reminiscences of A Stock Operator,该书讲述了上个世纪初华尔街最伟大的股票和期货投机大师Jesse Livermore的传奇一生。

这本书以第一人称的形式描写Livermore投资生涯的起起落落,以及他如何在金融市场上进行垄断、轧空和应对牛熊市场的经验。每一个读过这本书的人都会对他的闪光思想和精辟分析拍案叫绝,特别是对初入股市的新人来说,别的书不读也一定要读这本书,而且一遍还不够,一定要反复阅读。因为你将来就会发现,书中所讲述的市场规律和投资心理是经久不衰的,而书中所提到的各种错误也是你注定要犯的。因此,不论是新人还是老手,读完这本书会让你少走很多弯路。

网上有很多这本书的电子版本,下面这个链接是PDF文件格式,大家可以下载到电脑中经常查阅:

http://www.8nn8.net/00/股票作手回忆录.pdf

声明:请尊重作者版权,本文作者允许您在其它网站或媒体转载全文,但转载时必须注明“作者:Raymond Wang,三维预测投资通讯 3DFN.com”或者“文章来源:三维预测投资通讯 3DFN.com”,谢谢!

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机械化的交易系统 —— 再谈纪律的重要性

2007年10月31日 ¦ 894 浏览
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编者前言:

俗话说得好:欲加之罪,何患无辞。对于每项投资决定,我们都能找出一堆理由来支持它,也可以找出一堆理由来反对它。但问题是,你的这些“理由”是否每次都在变换?例如,今天是分析机构的股票评级让你决定买,明天是技术图形的阻力突破让你决定买,后天是某某论坛的某某高手让你决定买…… 你是否有一套放之四海而皆准的参考指标来指导每一次的投资决定?

人类是非常情绪化的动物,我们很容易受到干扰,禁不住诱惑,导致冲动进场、冲动交易。为了避免这些,我们需要总结一套信得过的交易系统,用历史数据反复验证,用Pager Trading反复磨练。这套系统可能很简单,无需复杂的概念,但关键是要持之以恒,机械化地执行每一个信号。不能因为别人说什么,或者媒体说什么而改变你的“理由”,也不能因为一两次的信号失误而彻底放弃已经验证过的交易系统。要想在股市中获利,耐心和纪律是最最重要的。成功的方法有很多种,失败的原因只有一个:不守纪律。

编者:三维预测网站 - www.3DForecast.com

The Virtues of Discipline

By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch.com, June 10, 2003

At my first speaking engagement at an investment seminar in 1981, I was scheduled to give a workshop at the same time as Richard Fabian, founder of the Telephone Switch Newsletter.

Only four investors showed up for my workshop. Fabian drew more than 1,000. Attendees were pushing and shoving to hear what Fabian had to say.

I was deeply impressed. If I recall correctly, I ended my workshop early so that the five of us could go hear Fabian.

I was amazed. Fabian was telling investors that they could duplicate his entire market timing system — based on whether the market was above or below its 39-week moving average — in less than a minute per week, yet his money-management fee was much higher than the industry average. In effect, Fabian was selling his discipline in actually adhering to the dictates of his system.

The line of people wanting to sign up went out the door.

I have thought a lot about Dick Fabian in recent weeks as I monitored the performance of his newsletter, now called Successful Investing and edited by his son, Douglas.

If the younger Fabian had followed the 39-week moving average with the discipline his father was extolling in 1981, the newsletter would have issued a buy signal on March 21. Fabian the son chose to ignore that signal, however, and ended up not buying into the stock market until May 30, some two and one-half months later — when the average stock, as measured by the Wilshire 5000 index (97199001: news, chart, profile), was nearly 13 percent higher.

Why did Douglas Fabian ignore the dictates of the 39-week moving average? On his March 21 hotline, Fabian gave eight reasons:

1. The 39-week moving-average buy signal was generated on a triple witching day, and such days typically experience heightened volatility. Market strength on such days “may not reflect the underlying trend.”
2. The economy is weak.
3. P/E ratios are high.
4. Key market averages are below their 52-week moving averages.
5. Investor sentiment is bullish.
6. This isn’t 1991. “Investors over the past week have been covering short positions in the hopes that we’ll have a repeat of 1991’s wartime rally. That would be nice, but betting the farm on what happened in the past means significant downside if history fails to repeat itself.”
7. “We’re closing in on the top of the market’s recent trading range.”
8. “We’re just a headline away from more declines.”

These were perfectly decent reasons, of course. But by questioning his mechanical timing system, Fabian in effect started down a slippery slope, at the bottom of which is the absence of any investment discipline.

This slope is so slippery because there always are good reasons on both sides of every investment question. Regardless of where investment advisers come down on any question, they will have no difficulty finding a whole host of good arguments to justify their positions.

In fact, this ability to rationalize virtually any position is evident in the eight reasons Fabian gave in March. Note that at least five of those eight reasons remained just as valid when he issued a buy signal at the end of May as when he used them to justify ignoring his buy signal in March.

Disciplined adherence to a mechanical strategy is what keeps us from slipping down this slope. Only in that way, the elder Fabian so vehemently argued nearly 25 years ago, can we confidently say that our emotions are not running the show.

He was right.

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