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中国房地产市场历史性地崩溃,这将导致股票市场崩盘,经济增长急剧放缓。

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泡沫之母——什么催生了中国的房地产泡沫?

原文:The Mother of All Bubbles|The Burning Platform  译文:博客(The Burning Platform):泡沫之母

作者:JimQ 译者:Andy (@adianch2010) 校对:Fuge、@xiaomi2020

译注:凯西研究(the Casey Research)是一家位于美国凤凰城的投资咨询公司,本文是对该公司发布的一份关于中国房地产市场的研究报告的简评。

关键词:巴德·康拉德(Bud Conrad),凯西报告(Casey Research),中国,房地产泡沫,刺激计划

在最新一期的凯西报告(The Casey Report)中,巴德·康拉德(Bud Conrad)在分析亚洲的真相方面做了一件杰出的工作。日本是一个在人口结构上正在滴滴作响的定时炸弹。中国政府创造了所有泡沫之母,当她破灭之时,全世界都将被震动。中国的奇迹事实上不是奇迹,只是一个以债务融资吹起来的泡沫。听起来有点耳熟?

我从巴德的文章中挑选了4张图表,图表尽可能清楚地描绘了现状。下面的图表显示,与日本在1980年代晚期的房地产泡沫以及当前中国的泡沫相比,美国的房地产泡沫看起来像一个小小的减速墩。美国还要下降20%-30%。对于那些希望房地产复苏的人,我得指出,日本的房地产市场跌了20年,仍未复原。我很想知道,全国房地产经纪人协会(the National Association of Realtors)是否会在2025年发起一个广告宣传运动,告诉我们那时才是最佳买入时机。

让我们看看中国的住房价格。自从2008年的金融危机以来,中国的房地产市场已经飙升了60%。现在有6,500万套空置的住房。(译注:关于6,500万套空置房的数据来源存疑,这个数据近期在国内引起不少争议。 )问题不再是中国的房地产泡沫是否存在,而是泡沫什么时候将会破灭。泡沫们总是会做一件事情,那就是破灭!!!

北京及其周边的土地价格在过去的这几年中已经攀升了9倍。幻觉不再是美国人的专利。下面两个图应该放在字典中“泡沫”一词的旁边。对于任何过去两年中在中国买房的人来说,最终的结局必定是眼泪。

  (*译注:数据来源可参见此三人的相关论文,在这里:http://www.nber.org/papers/w16189

阿伦·格林斯潘先生可以作证,泡沫只有在货币政策和/或财政政策极度宽松的时候才会形成。泡沫之王(译注:指格林斯潘)在2000年代早期用他1%的利率为美国的房地产泡沫推波助澜。中国人必定有成百上千个保罗·克鲁格曼的弟子在管理着他们的经济官僚体系,永远不会有足够多的刺激计划来满足一个克鲁格曼派。中国领导人觉得,他们必须保持GDP10%的增长速度。增长率减缓到5%将会在上亿从乡村来到城市寻找工作的农民中引发社会骚乱。下面这张图显示,当你控制了印钞机和发放贷款的银行,你就可以做刺激“工作”了。在美国,联邦储备银行印了钞票,但银行把他们的钱囤积起来,没有发放贷款。

中国政府印了钞票,并且指示银行向购物中心、公寓住房、写字楼和酒店式公寓发放贷款。一般的市民们买的公寓多达5套。每个王、张和黄都知道房地产只会上涨。他们5850亿美元的一揽子刺激计划被用于修建整座整座仍旧空置的城市。220万平方英尺的华南购物中心拥有2100家店铺,几乎完全是空置的。中国人将 “无头桥”(bridges to nowhere)的概念推向了一个新的高度。

在20个月中,中国的M2增长了47%,反映出中国当局高企的政府开支。当你把3.5万亿美元交给开发商的时候,他们当然会发展。当一名有权处死你的政府官员告诉银行家们去放款,他们会顺从地放款。中国政府可以将真相隐藏一段时间,但中国的刺激计划和不当地投资于写字楼、公寓、商场和城市所引起的坏账最终将导致中国房地产市场历史性地崩溃。这将导致股票市场崩盘,经济增长急剧放缓。

所有泡沫之母将会破灭。只是个时间问题。基于历史经验,中国的房地产泡沫正在寻找它的那根针。

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