GTA地产市场热点在转化

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2016年下半年以来,随着房贷的收紧、温哥华市场因政策调整而发生的变化,大多伦多地区(GTA)的地产市场的“风声”也有了变化。

房价会跌吗?

很多等着“抄底”的朋友们又在喊“房价要跌”了。坦率地讲,从今后几年看,有这个想法的纯粹是瞎扯淡,理由很简单:

  1. 需求一直比较旺盛。其中移民是主要的驱动力,现在多伦多周边的新移民数量稳定在每年8万人左右,占加拿大新移民总数的32%,而且“含金量”不低。另外由于“聚集效应”,其它地方的人口也在朝GTA迁移。内外移民加在一起,GTA的人口增长率一直在每59%downtown更是达到了令人恐怖的每530%以上!

  2. 供应不足。如下图,Greenbelt环保政策等造成建筑土地日益萎缩,low-rise房子的库存量一直在快速下跌——20074月库存量为16168套,而20164月仅有2751套(17%)!

  3. 不要幻想出现大片“烂尾楼”,因为对于成片开发的项目,都是要预售70%以后才能开工,换言之市场风险在开工之前已经被基本上消化掉。

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Single Family Home用地、楼花:暴涨之后需退烧

20152016年,用于TownhouseSemi-houseHouse的地价飞速增长,连带着楼花价格也跳涨。如下图,仅在2014-2015秋一年之内,Richmond Hill20’36’40’50’ lot地价都跳涨了50%!而在Aurora西北的Arbor楼盘,2016年初最后一期推出来之后,到现在价钱就再也没有涨过——之前几期炒得太高,涨不动啦。


结合其它数据,笔者觉得:


  1. 各种Single Family Home用地、楼花的确需要“退烧”,也就是涨幅明显下降,但下跌不太可能。原因明摆着:地价涨这么快,建筑成本也在涨,现在修房子出来谁买得起呀?还是“以时间换空间”,等房价涨上来再说吧。

  2. 有意思的是,用于townhouse20’ lot起涨最早、累计涨幅最大,说明由于房价的上涨带来购买力的压力,低价格、高容积率的townhouse出现了“补涨行情”。

  3. 水平比较高的操盘手,如果还想玩儿土地,可以关注一些核心黄金地段周边的“价值洼地”。这个比跑到很远的地方去囤地要强,一般人我不告诉他。

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其它建议

  1. 房贷收紧的影响:最受影响的是那些本来经济实力就差的买房人的投机性需求。比如笔者参与的房贷投资基金,201612月参与的“楼花救急”项目有将近10个,把我们自己都吓了一大跳,很大一部分都是报税收入非常低没法申请银行房贷的。

  2. Condo:由于需求旺盛,2016Condo的价格涨幅上扬,有的地区涨幅达9%。不过仔细分析,主要是交通条件好(特别是地铁边上)的新Condo在领涨。

  3. Stacked Townhouse值得关注。这是因为Stacked Townhouse的价钱和Condo差不多,但是居住质量要好得多,“刚性需求”强并有一定的“补涨”投资价值,比上(免管理费独立屋和Townhouse)不足比下(Condo)有余。以Vaughan为例,2016年上半年,1028 sqft的新Stacked Townhouse均价在50万左右,而852 sqftcondo价格则为46.1万。

现在,我们根据加拿大华人的需求,正在围绕“控制总融资成本、控制全过程投资风险”的核心目标,为房地产投资人、开发商提供投资、融资服务和产品,希望通过我们的努力,为华人社区在加拿大的发展壮大尽一份绵薄之力。特别是对专业水准高的房地产经纪、房贷经纪、中小开发商,我们能为他们自己或其客户迅速提供融资支持:50万加元以内融资需求24小时内可准备好资金;50-150万加元,两个工作日内可准备好资金;150万以上的需求,尽责调查时间要长一些,但可以边沟通边准备资金,不会误事。

Sales Representative, Highyon Reality Inc. Brokerage;

Mortgage Lic #: M13000527, under FMP Mortgage Investments Inc. (FSCO reg. # 12373)

(以上内容不构成任何具体投资建议。对具体个案,欢迎来电垂询王富嘉6474000186或电邮[email protected],或光临近日举办的讲座 http://info.51.ca/my/view-415514-229195.html

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