狂欢结束,请付费离开!

字体 -

时间,公元2018年,加拿大。

加拿大房产市场的资产狂欢到2017年下半年已经出现了要收场的迹象。

到了2018年,随着安省政府一些针对房市政策的实施,银行收紧贷款的B20,贷款利率的提高,BC省发出的稳定房市的30 Points,等等,狂热的房市开始慢慢冷却。

当狂欢的人们还沉浸在一片欢腾当中,大门在悄悄的关上,对不起,资产狂欢结束,请把狂欢中的花费付清再离开!狂欢结束.jpg

虽然,你付了门票进来,因为狂欢的场面气氛,使你忽略了一个事实,那就是,你在狂欢当中,不知不觉地花费很多,都记在你帐上,等你离开的时候,一起付清。

去过豪华游轮的人都知道,上游轮的时候,每个人发一张临时信用卡,供你在船上尽情消费,等到下船的时候一起付清,就是这个道理。

那么在资产狂欢中有什么费用呢?

增加的房贷,为买大房子而背上的重重的房贷。房价下跌而房贷却一分不能少还,而且随着利率的增加,还贷的压力越来越大。

增加的地税,房子越大地税越高,房价下降,可地税不会下降;

增加的房产保险,房子越大保险越贵;

资本的损失,房价下跌,房子里的资产Equity在减少;

买房抵押金损失,随着贷款收紧,贷不到款的买家越来越多,损失抵押金的例子越来越多;

买房毁约的罚金,随着房价下跌,房贷的收紧,买房毁约交罚金的例子也越来越多;最新的一个新闻是”一个买主2017年3月签下买房合同$2.25 Million,交接时反悔,卖家重新卖房,卖价$1.78Million。法院判决:要求原买家支付$470,000差价+其他损失费用+法律费用,”

……………..

这个时候,私人贷款市场开始活跃起来。着急借钱的人们开始寻求高利贷。

当你开始借高利贷,或拆了东墙补西墙的时候,甚至把为退休收入做准备的存款和为保险要交的保费都拿出来还债的时候,你目前的财务安全就已经出现了问题,或者问题已经很严重,更不敢看未来的财务状况了!

为这次资产狂欢付出的最大的代价是很多人的财务规划被打乱了。未来的财务状况变得模糊和不确定,财务目标需要修改,为财务目标的努力要无形中增加很多年。

为什么资产狂欢会突然结束呢?一个重要原因是,这个资产狂欢是由大量的借贷支撑的,而突然借钱的渠道被关上了,需要借钱进入狂欢的人们被挡在门外,那么狂欢就要渐渐远去,进入尾声了。

我们可以看一下加拿大人借钱的情况:

House Debt/House Disposable Income

加拿大人每赚1元钱,就要还1.73元的债务!

canada debt and disposable income 1.png

而美国人在2008年因次级房贷引起的金融危机前的借钱情况:

800px-U.S._Household_Debt_Relative_to_Disposable_Income_and_GDP.png

下面这张图是加拿大美国的对比:

Canada-US-debt.png

加拿大人的借钱到这样的程度,银行最怕的是借贷的人还不起债务而放弃还债,那么什么因素会加剧这种恐惧:

通货膨胀率/利息是上涨,

整个国家经济状况的持续疲软或疲软加重,

失业率的增加

等等,,,

如果你的退休和遗产规划全都赌在房子上,那你现在就要开始担心了!因为不远前的历史已经告诉我们,多伦多的房市曾经在80年代有过一段疯涨,从1989开始回落,直到2012才恢复到1989的水平,那一次起落经历了近23年,而这一次要多长时间回复到2017年初的水平,就无人可知了!

狂欢结束了,希望我们可以回想起财务规划的宗旨:你投资的目的是什么?你知道风险在哪里吗?你知道风险有多大吗?你知道自己的风险承受能力吗?你知道风险带来的损失是什么吗?你有必要承受这么大的风险吗?还是你压根就不在乎风险?

如果你不在乎风险,那么你在乎什么呢?

关于风险,欢迎点击,“螳螂捕蝉,麻雀在后”,http://blog.51.ca/u-289387/2018/02/09/螳螂扑蝉%ef%bc%8c麻雀在后/

欢迎扫二维码,报名参加本周末的讲座。

WeChat Image_20171128120833.jpg

(本文是原创,只作为信息参考,并不构成任何具体投资理财建议。欢迎各种与财务规划相关的问题,请扫二维码提问。)

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