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 “薄熙来设计”找到了中国政治改革的重大突破口

编载:  风波亭薄熙来

原帖网址:http://www.fengyanforum.org/forum/thread-4582.html

1、对《公开信》的“野心家”解读,是要回避信中揭示出的中国政治改革的重大突破口 《薄熙来致重庆人民及全国爱国人士公开信》(下简称《公开信》)发出后,一些人对信中讲到薄提出要与习储君竞争总书记一事,加以“野心家”、“篡党夺权” 解读。熟悉改革开​放前历史者都知道,当年被打倒的彭德怀、刘少奇、林彪等等,都有“资产阶级个人野心家”罪名,所以这实为典型“文革思维”。其实,真要 让薄获罪,倒不如用“鼓励自由化”更​恰当。而这种有点心理扭曲的解读,恰恰掩盖了倒薄者的一种担心与害怕:《公开信》揭示了中国政治改革的真正突破口, 进而最终挽救倒薄力量期盼消灭的共产党。

2、薄提出的总书记“党内产生、人民票决”,是目前条件下中国政治改革的带根本性的、最巧妙的制度设计 自邓小平提出政治改革后,除了任期制有所突破外,这项改革一直半死不活地拖踏不前,毫无建树,其最明显标志,就是现有政治体制使共产党30多年来日趋腐 败,领导干部日趋平​庸。这其中确实存在着许多难以解决的难题,像如何代表多种利益,防止利益单一化;如何处理劳资矛盾和官民矛盾,防止社会动荡问题;等 等。但这其中最难处理的一个矛盾,就是​推进广泛民主与维护国家统一之间的尖锐矛盾。可以说,现有任何一种制度设计,包括所谓的“党内民主”,基层直选等 等,都无法解决这一矛盾。对于眼下的政治改革,无论是左派​的“大民主”设计,还是右派的“宪政民主”设计,最终都是分疆裂土及至内战的亡国之计。

但是,随着执政党日益腐化堕落,再不推进政治改革,确实是死路一条。从中共目前状态看,缺乏真正的自由选举和几乎是无官不贪,其法制意义上的合法性已不复 存在;无力应对世​界最严重的两极分化和庞大的过剩产能,其政绩合法性也正在大幅减弱;眼下它只有最后一种合法性:维护国家统一和多民族和平相处。而提出 任何一种政治改革,只要它导致国家分​裂直至内战,执政党就真可谓达到恶贯满盈了。中国老百姓之所以眼下还能容忍共产党执政,其根源也在于这个最后的合法 性的勉强存在。

于是,在不改不行,改又不能最后对人民犯罪的矛盾之间,出现了薄熙来的新的政治改革路线,也就是公开信最后中关于“应该怎么看待发展民主和政治改革的问 题”部分,其中对薄​氏改革设计的关键性内容和依据(例如“三个相容”),做了初步论证,尽管因写作匆忙而尚不完整,但基本雏形已在。归结起来,可以用 “总书记‘党内产生、人民票决’”一句话​概括;具体讲,它有三个要点:

第一,共产党继续作为中国唯一的执政党存在,通过它掌握着统一的军队、警察等国家机器,维护着国家统一和多民族的和平相处。这就避免了多党制之类激进做法在公众中诱发的混​乱、怨恨及至仇恨杀,所以比较起来,是一种最安全的民主。

第二,从长远讲,共产党的领导人要通过执政和不断升迁至中央级高位,及要从党的内部产生,可以维持执政的稳定性和连续性。

第三,但是,稳定与连续又可能排斥创新与进取,因此必须有竞争上岗的机制防止之。而作为最高领导人,最后必须通过两位人选的公开竞选、全民投票去决定。党 的最高领导者的工​作绩效,必须按照其对人民的公开承诺去接受选票的检验,而不是继续搞那种令群众厌恶的表扬与自我表扬,方能满足广大人民群众的民主诉 求。

如此,中共的执政,就既有了民意基础,又秉持了党的意志,解决了推进民主与维护国家统一和民族和平相处的矛盾。对最高领导者职务这样裁决,将引发相关的一 系列政治改革,其​显然是一次政治改革的重大突破。因此堪称是目前中国历史条件下,最带根本性、也是最巧妙的制度设计,无愧是政治改革的大手笔!而且从 《公开信》不难看出,薄熙来对此实际上​在做亲身探索。

3、实施这一新制度的最大难点,是如何防止因执政党自身的“西西里化”操控选举,所以“打黑”是必不可少的条件 但是,要启动这种制度,最大阻力来自党内反民主力量——黑恶势力。由于30多年来的政治改革未能找到根本出路,中共内部越来越多的人已演变为黑帮资产阶级 成员,或被其所控​制,而且是从上到下几乎渗透到党政军群各个方面。所以,任何形式的选举都难免为其所操纵。薄为何提出法轮功问题?很可能就是考虑到:这 个世界最大的反华组织,很可能在关键​时刻最终控制选举结果,使其为敌对势力所利用。坦而言之,这次倒薄本身,就很可能也是黑恶势力搞乱中国的一大成果。

如何解决这一问题,固然需要采取综合措施,包括诸如公平竞选制度、选举监督制度等技术性设计。但这些都是治标之举,从眼下状况看,最紧迫的任务,就是要对 从高层领导开始,​对执政党进行“脱黑”,换言之,就是必须从打黑入手,使大部分高、中级官员能够摆脱黑恶势力控制。如此,方能保证选举中不被黑恶势力操 控,保证最后推出的官员是“白”的,​保证第一次选举处于良好的政治生态中,也才能使之后的选举与执政之间进入良性循环。重庆打黑,显然不只是该地之需 要,而是薄氏要积累使官场脱黑实际经验之深谋远虑。

4、这种制度还存在许多相关的技术性问题,但也有国外的大量经验可以借鉴,可以在创新中完善设计 除了防止选举被黑恶势力操控外,还有许多技术性问题需要解决。例如:如何在众多官员中确认最后的竞选者,如何保证竞争过程的公平公正,如何监督选举,如何 在省及其以下领导​中实行“内部产生、人民票决”,如何据此重新确定合理的任期时间,如何防止军队、警察等国家强力部门操纵党内斗争,如何在一个十三亿人 口的国家降低选举成本问题……都需要​进行扎扎实实的制度设计,甚至试点摸索。但这都属于技术性问题,也有许多国家的经验可以借鉴,关键是要结合根据中国 自己实际进行创新。例如,如何发展好网络民主,就是一个​提高政治透明度、实现高效民主的最新的重要辅助手段。

 5、给“薄熙来设计”一个机会,就是给中国一个机会 眼下可以有两种选择:

第一种选择:高层承认“薄熙来设计”,把十八大作为政治改革起点。考虑到改革重大,可以较长时间地(例如一年半以上)推迟会议,按照重庆经验进行党高层组 织的脱黑工作,并​加快制度设计。这样做的好处是:倒薄以后,中国已陷入政治、经济、社会、军事、外交诸多危机之中,党心混乱,人心思改,这样做可以扭转 困境,争取民心。缺点是时间上未免操​切,一些已经造成的尖锐矛盾难以处理,特别是打黑更是难以在不到两年内完成。

第二个方案:为稳妥起见,十八大暂不启动改革,但要提出政治改革的制度基本设计,并向全党全国人民宣布要进行这样的改革。之后,集中精力进行官员脱黑和制度设计等准备工作​。最后,提前两年时间召开十九大,完成这项具有历史意义的重大改革。

如能这样,无疑会使中国民主政治的走出一大步。当然,这不等于解决了所有问题,今后还要根据变化不断改革创新,使中国走在不断前进的道路上。

这里想对储君说几句:给薄熙来设计一个机会,就是给中国一个机会,也可以为自己留下贤德之君的光彩一笔。再拿老百姓那句话说:在公开公平竞中争败在薄这种 高人手里,不丢人​;而如果为自己那点蝇头小利不敢因应,继续把中国往“颜色沟”里带,在中国历史上,就会丢人丢大发了。

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