Prime Mortgage Rates 的历史变迁

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Kathy Wang

50 Historical Mortgage Prime Rate.png

曾经在银行贷过款或咨询过贷款的人,想必都听到过Prime Rate这个词。那么究竟什么是Prime Mortgage Rate, 它又是根据什么来决定的呢?

Prime Rate,是银行的贷款基准利率,它曾经是指银行/金融机构出借给最好的客户的最优惠利率。当然现在的含义不仅仅如此,它更是贷款利率的一个参考标准。Prime Rate是根据央行公布的隔夜拆借基准利率来进行调整的。自20157月以来央行的隔夜拆借基准利率是0.5%。经过20177月、9月和20181月的连续三次加息后,目前隔夜拆借利率达到了1.25%。当前各大银行的Prime Rate也是水涨船高,从之前的2.7%已经提升至如今的3.45%。从下面这张银行隔夜拆借利率与贷款基准利率的比较,我们可以看出两者是绝对正相关的。

50-2 Prime vs Overnight Rate.png

根据加拿大央行1935-2018年的统计数据,历史上的Prime Rate 平均值是7.51%,在19818月曾经高达22.75%,而最低值2.25%则是出现在 20094月。从上面的两张图,我们可以清晰地看到Prime Rate的历史走势,而最近几年的Prime Rate可以说是一直徘徊在历史最低点。甚至最近持续的三次加息,在图上也仅仅是低位处的稍稍扬头而已。然而,毫无疑问,利率已经处在上升通道上了,而且未来还存在继续上升的趋势。

Prime Rate关系最为密切的是浮动利率,通常浮动利率是按P- discount rate 来表示的。一旦prime rate上涨,浮动利率会立即作出相应调整。在前两年利率不变的情况下,2年固定利率曾低于浮动利率。而在利率上涨信号明显的当今,浮动利率又重新取得了最低的位置。这是因为大部分人看涨利率,倾向于选择较长期的固定利率,选择浮动利率的人相应减少而造成的。

Prime Rate 的走势来看,目前的利率仍是处在历史低位的。在目前的低Prime Rate下,为预防未来可能的利率上涨,尽快锁定更长期限的固定利率不失为一个明智的选择,至少在锁定期间,你的月供额不会因利率上涨而改变。而如果你的风险耐受力较高,则选择浮动利率更能暂时享受较低的利率,即使未来有上涨,也在您的承受范围之内。

我们头脑中有了利率的大局观,当然就不会去斤斤计较0.05%,乃至0.01%的利率差别,而选择能让贷款最快顺利得到批准的银行,享受最佳的银行服务,才是挑选银行的关键。

(本文仅代表个人观点)

如有问题欢迎随时致电Scotiabank房贷专家Kathy(王雷) 647-291-7958,或加微信kathywl


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